Possible scenario
Attacks Escalate
20% Chance
Iran or Iran-aligned forces conduct further attacks near the shipping lane, forcing owners and insurers to reassess voyages through Hormuz. Crude prices, volatility, and credit risk rise sharply over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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