Possible scenario
Legislative Brinkmanship
40% Chance
Iranian lawmakers keep the NPT withdrawal bill alive but use it mainly as leverage after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites. The government and Supreme National Security Council avoid an immediate treaty rupture while testing whether Europe, Russia, China, or the IAEA offer concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.