Possible scenario
Formal Withdrawal Track
25% Chance
The bill advances beyond symbolism and becomes an official pathway to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This would intensify the nuclear crisis, weaken IAEA visibility, and increase the risk of follow-on Israeli or U.S. action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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