Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Regional mediators and the IAEA persuade Tehran to slow the parliamentary process in exchange for talks on inspections and sanctions pressure. This would reduce immediate escalation risk without resolving the underlying nuclear confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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