Possible scenario
Naval Containment Holds
35% Chance
The United States, Saudi Arabia, and partners expand convoy escorts and air-defense coverage around the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and Saudi approaches. Houthi and Iranian-linked attacks continue at a low level, but no major new tanker loss occurs, allowing oil markets to price in containment rather than a wider supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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