Possible scenario
Diplomatic Stabilization
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European governments push emergency contacts between Washington, Riyadh, Tehran, and Houthi intermediaries. Even without a durable peace settlement, credible restraint and supply assurances could quickly remove part of the oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Consumer Services +1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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