Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Repricing
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that investors treat the new 1996-high yield as a continuation of Japan’s normalization rather than a disorderly break. The Bank of Japan allows yields to rise while emphasizing gradual balance-sheet reduction and data-dependent rate increases.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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