Possible scenario
Fiscal Premium Widens
17% Chance
The yield rise increasingly reflects concern over Japan’s debt supply and fiscal trajectory, not only monetary normalization. Investors demand higher term premium ahead of auctions and the next budget cycle.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.4%
- Finance -1.0%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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