Possible scenario
BOJ Turns Hawkish
28% Chance
A higher yield level pushes markets to expect the BOJ to validate the move with tighter policy. This path would transmit most clearly through global duration, yen-sensitive Japanese equities, and high-debt borrowers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.3%
- Technology -2.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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