Possible scenario
Western Sanctions Expand
20% Chance
Washington and some European governments may respond with targeted sanctions, building on the 2024 measures against violent settlers. This remains more likely than broad economic punishment because allies want to signal disapproval without rupturing security ties with Israel.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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