Possible scenario
Integrated Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
Iran’s regional network becomes more institutionally integrated after Hassan Nasrallah’s death, but Tehran and Hezbollah keep operations below a threshold that would trigger a full Israeli or U.S. response. The most likely path is continued coordination among the IRGC-Quds Force, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis without a decisive regional rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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