Possible scenario
Saudi Supply Disruption
23% Chance
Further inspection could show that the refinery and related logistics damage is worse than first reported, forcing Saudi Arabia to delay some exports or redirect crude internally. This would turn the event from a risk-premium shock into a tangible near-term supply loss.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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