Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
27% Chance
Saudi Arabia and the United States are likely to respond with targeted air or missile strikes against Houthi launch infrastructure rather than a broad campaign. Markets would price higher escalation risk, but a calibrated response would probably avoid immediate Gulf-wide disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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