Contained Oil Shock

The most likely near-term path is that Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Gulf partners prevent immediate follow-on damage while markets keep a large geopolitical risk premium in crude. Brent remains extremely elevated, but the absence of new confirmed supply losses limits the next 1-2 day market shock.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.