Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is additional risk reduction as investors reprice the Fed path after sticky core inflation. The prior stability regime leaves volatility-targeting and systematic strategies vulnerable to reducing exposure if the index fails to quickly regain support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.