Possible scenario
Fuel Bottleneck Persists
25% Chance
The headline recovery in crude masks continued shortages in refined fuels, especially jet fuel and diesel. Damaged refineries, insurance restrictions and product-tanker scarcity keep margins elevated even as crude loadings recover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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