Possible scenario
Crude Normalizes Gradually
45% Chance
Crude exports remain close to prewar levels as convoying, rerouting and port repairs keep barrels moving from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait. Product markets remain tighter because refinery outages and jet-fuel logistics take longer to repair than upstream loading systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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