Possible scenario
Jackson Wins Clearly
45% Chance
Jackson's 57%-43% polling lead proves directionally accurate, even if the final margin narrows. The bribery story, debate performance, and Obama endorsement combine to nationalize the race and make Collins' moderate brand insufficient.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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