Possible scenario
Collins Comeback
18% Chance
The 57%-43% poll proves to be an outlier or captures a temporary post-debate surge for Jackson. Collins benefits from split-ticket voters, independents, and a disciplined closing message on seniority and moderation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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