Possible scenario
Rolling Disruption Escalates
24% Chance
A stronger-than-expected turnout gives the CGT, FO, FSU and education unions momentum to extend action beyond a single strike day. The risk becomes not one protest but repeated transport, school and public-service disruption during the budget fight.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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