Possible scenario
Limited Government Concessions
22% Chance
The government tries to split the protest coalition by offering narrow concessions while preserving the bulk of the deficit-reduction package. This outcome reduces near-term strike intensity without fully ending the budget confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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