Possible scenario
Contained Strike Day
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is another large but time-limited mobilization centered on education, civil servants and student groups. The government absorbs the protest politically while keeping the €43 billion 2027 savings plan broadly intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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