Possible scenario
Weakening Baja Landfall
45% Chance
Polo continues its weakening trend after dropping from Category 5 to Category 4 and reaches Baja California Sur at a lower intensity. Damage is disruptive but localized, with the strongest market impact concentrated in Los Cabos travel, airports, and local infrastructure.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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