Possible scenario
Offshore Track Shift
15% Chance
A modest track adjustment keeps Polo's core offshore, limiting land impacts to rain, surf, and temporary travel disruption. This would produce a relief move in exposed tourism and airport names rather than a broad market response.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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