Possible scenario
Damaging Direct Hit
30% Chance
Polo remains a major hurricane into Monday and strikes a populated tourism corridor. The most likely financial effects are concentrated in Mexican airport, airline, hotel, insurance, utility, and construction-linked names rather than global macro markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Utilities -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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