Possible scenario
Talks Resume
38% Chance
Trump's admission gives the White House room to step back from the most provocative target list and test whether Iran will re-engage. Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries would likely try to convert the rhetorical shift into a controlled negotiating channel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.