Possible scenario
Escalation Returns
22% Chance
The diplomatic opening fails as Iran or U.S. hawks interpret the statement as weakness rather than a path to compromise. Nuclear activity, proxy action, or a leak about strike planning restores the conflict premium quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.