Possible scenario
Saudi Counteroffensive
27% Chance
Saudi Arabia increases air, intelligence, and logistical support to Yemeni government-aligned forces to prevent a durable Houthi hold over the coast. The operation can contain the advance, but it risks drawing Saudi territory and infrastructure back into the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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