Possible scenario
Court Fight Escalates
30% Chance
Banned outlets and press-freedom groups move quickly in federal court, arguing viewpoint discrimination and unlawful retaliation. The near-term outcome depends on whether judges issue emergency relief before the White House hardens its position.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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