Possible scenario
Reform Narrative Holds
22% Chance
The Pentagon counters Kelly's warning with data showing deployment schedules, training rotations, and procurement decisions remain on track. The administration frames the purge as accountability for underperformance rather than politicization, reducing near-term market concern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.