Possible scenario
Purge Continues
27% Chance
Hegseth and President Trump interpret the criticism as validation of their argument that the officer corps is resisting elected leadership. Further removals deepen concerns among former commanders, allies, and some defense contractors about decision-making continuity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.