Possible scenario
Oversight Contains Fallout
38% Chance
Congressional Republicans and Democrats treat John Kelly's warning as a reason to demand evidence rather than an immediate political rupture. Hegseth keeps his post, but the Pentagon is pushed to document readiness metrics and slow the pace of senior-officer removals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- GD+0.4%
- NOC-0.3%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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