Possible scenario
Redistricting Underperforms
22% Chance
The spending pullback becomes another data point supporting analysts’ view that the Trump-backed Texas redistricting plan may not deliver meaningful Republican gains. If several mapped-to-win districts remain competitive, Democrats’ odds of taking the House improve.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.