Possible scenario
Cuellar Holds Seat
38% Chance
The most likely interpretation is that House GOP strategists no longer see Rep. Henry Cuellar as the best use of late-cycle money, despite his federal indictment history and Trump pardon. Cuellar benefits from incumbency, local name recognition, and a district where national Republicans expected more movement than polling delivered.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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