Possible scenario
US Military Response
25% Chance
Washington concludes that convoy protection alone is failing and authorizes limited strikes against IRGC naval and missile assets. Markets initially treat this as a major escalation, though the reaction depends on whether Tehran keeps retaliation confined to shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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