Possible scenario
Diplomatic Supply Relief
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European governments press both sides toward a limited maritime de-escalation, while consuming nations prepare emergency supply tools. This does not resolve the broader US-Iran conflict, but it reduces the immediate tail risk priced into oil and volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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