Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Crisis
40% Chance
Iran continues high-frequency attacks on tankers in and near the Strait of Hormuz, but the United States and Gulf partners avoid direct strikes on Iranian territory. Oil remains elevated as insurance costs rise and traffic slows, while markets price a prolonged but contained disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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