Possible scenario
Lyman Gains Hold
38% Chance
Ukraine consolidates the newly retaken territory near Lyman, using air-dropped ground robots for resupply, reconnaissance, and limited assaults. Russia remains under pressure in the sector but avoids a full operational collapse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- AVAV+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.