Possible scenario
Institutions Contain Flávio
45% Chance
Brazil's Supreme Court, electoral courts, and congressional leaders keep Flávio Bolsonaro's pledge largely rhetorical. The most likely path is continued polarization without the votes or legal basis needed to free Jair Bolsonaro or remove hostile justices.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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