Possible scenario
Bolsonarist Leverage Grows
25% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro and the Liberal Party use the elder Bolsonaro's imprisonment to consolidate the right and pressure Congress. They gain enough leverage to disrupt institutions, but not necessarily enough to remake the Supreme Court.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.