Possible scenario
Mediated Climbdown
35% Chance
Iran uses the rejection to reset bargaining terms rather than permanently end diplomacy. Russia, Oman, and the IAEA provide channels for a face-saving arrangement that keeps enriched material in Iran temporarily while talks resume.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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