Possible scenario
IAEA Crisis
20% Chance
Iran's refusal to export material turns into a broader verification dispute. The risk is that inspectors lose visibility into stockpiles or that the E3 and United States move toward multilateral penalties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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