Possible scenario
Orderly Metals Reset
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the inflation-driven selloff becomes a valuation reset rather than a broader market break. Investors reprice the Fed easing path, but long-term central-bank demand and ETF buying interest prevent a disorderly unwind in gold and silver.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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