Possible scenario
Haze Disruption Deepens
25% Chance
The strong El Niño keeps peatland fires active, causing repeated school closures, flight delays, and outdoor-work restrictions in Malaysia and Singapore. This remains a significant risk because the WMO has warned of the strongest El Niño since 1950.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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