Possible scenario
Republican Late Recovery
18% Chance
The Democratic lead narrows as Republican turnout improves and the GOP reframes the campaign around immigration, crime, and Democratic tax plans. Republicans retain at least one chamber and possibly both, keeping Trump with enough congressional support to continue his tariff and deregulatory agenda.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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