Possible scenario
House Flip Only
30% Chance
The polling lead proves strong enough to flip the House but not enough to overcome Republican advantages in the Senate map. This creates partial divided government, with House Democrats able to investigate tariffs, fuel policy, and spending decisions but unable to drive legislation through the Senate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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