Possible scenario
Political Backlash Builds
20% Chance
Taxpayer groups, business associations, and local officials in lower-tax cities use the 10.25% rate as evidence that California’s tax burden is becoming politically unsustainable. A ballot or legislative effort emerges to cap future local add-ons or require stricter voter approval.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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