Possible scenario
Consumer Leakage Rises
27% Chance
A meaningful share of consumers shift discretionary purchases to lower-tax neighboring jurisdictions or delay big-ticket spending. The effect is most visible in autos, furniture, electronics, restaurants, and small retailers near county borders.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.