Possible scenario
Proxy Retaliation Rises
30% Chance
Iran-aligned groups may view the balloon swarms as part of a U.S.-Israeli kill chain and attempt to degrade them. The most plausible escalation is harassment, shootdowns, or rocket and drone attacks on related ground infrastructure rather than direct state-on-state war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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