Possible scenario
Orderly Iraqi Transition
45% Chance
Iraq absorbs the end of the U.S. military presence without an immediate security break. Baghdad keeps counterterrorism cooperation alive through intelligence sharing, drones, and regional liaison channels rather than permanent American bases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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